Iain, this is no big mystery and has been an issue in Japan since I lived there 30 years ago: many young Japanese women simply don’t fancy turning into Japanese wives. “Okasan” must not only cook, clean, and take care of the children, but also her overgrown baby salaryman hubbie-San. Especially educated young women don’t fancy that kind of servitude. Look at your own situation! Your wife married a gaijin! Lucky her - she probably gets a lot more help with the kids and housework than most wives.
The key solving Japan’s fertility problem is not economic. It’s social. The men have to grow up and change their views about what marriage and family mean.