Gosh Thom, I am a fan of your work. And I find “great cycle” theories if history as convincing as astrology. It reveals a thirst for patterns in that may imagine them where they don’t exist. For example this “4th Turning” - people aren’t born in generations, they are born one at a time over the course of years that flow into one another. Yes, great wars and disasters create busts and bulges, but these follow no mathematical regularity. The turning hypothesis rests on two notions that have changed in recent decades - 1. Average mortality - which has shifted much older. 2. Average age of child rearing - which has also shifted much older. So 19 years makes little sense as a generational marker now. In addition, the “memory” of the older generation matters less in a world with digital access to all history and a predilection for the present that outweighs the lessons of even recent history. And - birth rates and generations vary from nation to nation, and even within nations. It’s a huge bias to think how American generations are formed creates global patterns.

In sum, I have more faith that “Mercury in retrograde” affects human history than I do that a made up “4th Turning” will usher in a period of transformation. We the people, are the ones who have to make change happen. If we have the courage and perseverance for it.