Gosh Andrew, I find a lot of speculation, hyperbole and assumptions about what motivates the minds of leaders (And Biden, over course, did not go to either Harvard or Yale --(U of Delaware, class of '65!). You make quite firm pronouncements based on this heap of sand.

I enjoyed your article, because it challenged my current thinking, but overall, I was disappointed in the lack of substantial evidence you marshalled.

For what it's worth, I think the US all stick with Ukraine at least through the Biden presidency for a cluster of reasons, some good, some bad. Maybe in a future article you could refute some of these arguments?

1. The US lovers a winner. So long as Ukraine keeps "winning" the US will be there for them.

2. Europe is in it to win it. Russia is an existential threat and the Europeans know appeasement is a loser's game. So long as Europe is supplying Ukraine, the US will -- even if they reduce their support, the won't bow out because, NATO.

3. US arms manufacturers are profiting. They will lobby and bribe Republican senators to keep supplying Ukraine.

4. The war is destroying Russia's military capabilities at very cheap cost to the US. Bargain of the century.

5. Supporting Ukraine is the right thing to do (See Churchill).

6. My hunch is that the US knows Putin's threat of going nuclear is just a threat. (I have no idea is this is true or not, but I think it would be much harder for Putin to do this than some pundits make it out to be).

Cheers, Andrew. I always enjoy reading your thoughts.

Tim