13 Keys to Winning the White House
Allan Lichtman’s uncannily accurate prediction methodology calls a winner for 2024
Prof. Allan Lichtman of American University has only been wrong once in the last ten elections (in 2000, Gore v. Bush). In 2024, he has predicted Kamala Harris will defeat Donald Trump.
Relief flooded through me when I read this story — but is this justified? Or is Lichtman’s prediction no different than if, say, a Tarot card reader had turned up the Ten of Swords (the most negative card) for Donald Trump?
The case Lichtman makes for his methodology is that his 13 “Keys to the White House” were derived from looking back at key factors that influenced US presidential elections since 1860. All but one election fits his model, says Lichtman (Gore vs Bush should have fit too; the prof claims Gore really won, but the Supreme Court stopped the vote count).
For the most part, these 13 keys are simple to determine. When five or more keys apply to an election, the incumbent party nominee is predicted to win the election…
